Volatility

Volatility is my number one recommendation right now. I’ve bought call options in $UVXY which expire in a year. That is not a recommendation I would make. My risk reward spectrum is very high. I would recommend the $VIX to normal investors.

Higher interest rates are responsible for these bank failures. SVB, Signature (which seems like it was preemptive), and FRC were all invested in securities that were performing poorly due to higher rates. The FED and government representatives are assuring us that these failures aren’t systemic but I’m calling bullshit. I think plenty other smaller banks will feel pressure in the near future.

What I’d like to see happen is the FED to hike rates one more time and tank the markets. I expect housing prices to tank because of the overall pressure from the rest of markets and also the availability of mortgages at these rates are much more difficult. I foresee a short term tank and a quick response of stimulus and rate cuts from the FED. In this environment volatility performs very well. Locking in a mortgage when housing prices get crushed and interest rates are cut would be ideal.

Don’t sell your Bitcoin ($BTC, none of that other “crypto” horseshit) though. The halving is soon approaching (expected April 2024). It would seem like the best way to trade BTC would be to buy 6 months prior (October 2023) to halving and selling 18 months after (October 2025). If one wants to get leveraged during this timeframe you could buy call options for bitcoin mining stocks which expire around 10/2025. Picking a successful miner is necessary though. $RIOT, $MARA, $HUT, $BITF would be my recommendations.